There’s no question that GLP-1 medications have captured the public’s imagination. Once seen as niche diabetes drugs, they’re now among the most talked-about treatments in the world, thanks to their weight-loss potential and celebrity endorsements. As prices begin to come down, many analysts are predicting another sales surge. But from a strategic standpoint, it’s unlikely that GLP-1s will maintain long-term dominance.
The Price Elasticity Effect
Lower prices will undoubtedly expand access. Patients who couldn’t previously afford a $1,000-a-month prescription may now leap. Employers and insurers might also reconsider coverage if the financial burden lightens. In the short term, this will mean higher prescription volumes and a flood of new users eager for results.
But price is only one part of the equation. The challenge for sustained growth lies in adherence—and that’s where GLP-1s run into serious headwinds.
The Problem of Perpetual Treatment
GLP-1 drugs work only as long as patients stay on them. Stop taking them, and most people regain much of the weight they lost within months. That means these medications aren’t a cure—they’re a commitment. For many, the idea of a lifetime injection or pill is daunting, both psychologically and financially. Over time, that reality will reduce persistence rates and erode repeat sales, even with lower upfront costs.
Side Effects That Can’t Be Ignored
The side-effect profile—nausea, vomiting, and digestive issues—remains a significant barrier to long-term adherence. While most patients tolerate these effects early on, chronic use can amplify discomfort. Real-world data show that a considerable percentage of users stop treatment within a year. No amount of price reduction can overcome the physical toll for those who can’t tolerate the drug.
Many patients quit GLP-1s relatively early — within one year the rates of discontinuation often run ~40-65%, depending on the indication (diabetes vs obesity) and population.
Among the reasons for discontinuation, side effects (particularly GI issues like nausea/vomiting) are clearly a significant contributor. Data suggests anywhere from ~28% (in one real‐world summary) up to ~40–65% (in survey‐based reasons) list side effects as a leading cause.
Because the data is real-world, the percentages vary by population, by how “discontinuation” is defined, and whether the cause is filtered (side effect vs cost vs lack of efficacy).
For strategic purposes: you could state something like:
“While overall discontinuation rates for GLP-1 therapies within one year often lie in the 40-60% range, roughly a quarter to one-third of those discontinuations are clearly driven by intolerable side‐effects.”
Going further: Emphasise that side effects + lifelong use present a structural headwind to persistence (and thus long-term revenue/market size) — not just cost or access.
The Strategic Outlook
In the near term, GLP-1 manufacturers will see impressive top-line growth. Wall Street will cheer. But strategically, the industry must prepare for a plateau. As the initial wave of motivated patients settles into reality, discontinuation rates will rise and replacement cycles will shorten.
Unless new formulations can reduce side effects and create durable weight loss after discontinuation, GLP-1s may follow a trajectory similar to other once-hyped categories: explosive early adoption followed by an inevitable correction.
Lower prices will open the door to millions of new users—but not all will stay. The combination of side effects, the need for lifelong use, and the lack of a permanent solution will ultimately cap the long-term potential of GLP-1 medications.
The hype may continue, but strategic sustainability will depend less on how cheap these drugs become—and more on how well the industry can solve the biological and behavioral realities of weight management.
