Buy, Sell or Hold NFLX Stock?

Netflix NFLX is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on Thursday. 

For the first quarter of 2025, Netflix forecasts revenues to increase 11%, which equates to 14% growth on an F/X neutral basis, which is modestly below the full-year guidance due to the timing of price changes and the seasonality of the ads business.

The company anticipates total revenues to be $10.416 billion, suggesting growth of 11.2% year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pinned at $10.54 billion, above the company’s expectations, indicating 12.5% year-over-year growth.

NFLX has projected earnings of $5.58 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $5.74 per share, currently above the company’s expectations. The estimate has remained steady over the past 30 days.

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Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.67%. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 7.17%.

Netflix, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Netflix, Inc. Quote

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Netflix this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NFLX has an Earnings ESP of -2.23% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

As Netflix approaches its first-quarter 2025 earnings report, investors should maintain current positions rather than adding to them at present valuations, despite the company’s strong performance trajectory. The streaming giant ended 2024 with impressive numbers, adding a record 19 million paid subscribers in the fourth quarter to reach 302 million memberships, while growing revenues 16% year over year.

For first-quarter 2025, Netflix has guided an operating margin of 28.2%. This slower growth compared to previous quarters reflects typical first-quarter seasonality and the timing of price changes, alongside headwinds from the strengthening U.S. dollar. The company’s content momentum continues with the return of highly anticipated shows, including Squid Game, Wednesday and Stranger Things, scheduled throughout 2025. First-quarter specifically featured the third season of Alpha Males in January, followed by the Chinese romantic comedy I am Married…But! in February, with period piece The Lady’s Companion closing the quarter in March.

Live content remains a growing focus, with the 52-week WWE programming deal beginning to materialize and preparations for future NFL Christmas Day broadcasts following last year’s success. The ad-supported tier also continues gaining traction, representing more than 55% of sign-ups in markets where available, with further monetization expected throughout 2025.

Netflix’s push into international markets continues with region-specific content like The Trauma Code: Heroes on Call (Korea), Little Siberia (Finland), and The Snow Girl 2 (Spain), all premiering in the first quarter, helping drive global engagement alongside unscripted hits like Single’s Inferno season 4. While the company targets doubling its advertising revenues in 2025 and expects an operating margin of 29% for the full year, the stock currently trades at elevated multiples reflecting much of this anticipated growth.

The potential impact of further price increases on subscriber retention, alongside growing competition from the likes of Apple AAPL, Amazon AMZN and Disney’s DIS streaming platforms, beside near-term currency pressures, suggests investors should maintain positions but exercise patience before adding to them ahead of first-quarter results.